This blog was first published by the Centre for International Policy Studies
Since 28 February 2026, the Middle East has experienced sustained hostilities following United States and Israeli strikes against Iran and subsequent retaliation by Iran. Iranian missile and drone attacks have been reported across several countries in the region. Leaders across Africa have already expressed alarm. Statements from the African Union and some of its member statessignal growing fears that rising tensions in the Middle East are not only reshaping regional geopolitics but could also generate ripple effects across Africa, influencing energy prices, disrupting trade routes, threatening food security, affecting migrant workers’ remittances, and raising new security and diplomatic challenges for African states.
Middle East – Africa Relations
The Middle East sits at the crossroads of Africa’s energy markets, trade routes, labour migration, and investment flows. Relations between the Middle East and most African economies developed after independence in the 1960s. Driven by anti-Americanism and efforts to project Shiite influence, Iran, under Mohammad Reza Pahlavi (1941–1979), expanded its diplomatic ties with several newly independent African states to bolster its global presence beyond the Middle East. Saudi Arabia developed diplomatic ties with the region after the 1967 Arab-Israeli war, seeking African support against Israel. Turkey also expanded relations with the region much later, around 2005, under the so-called “ Opening to Africa” policy of Erdogan.
In the post Cold War era, both the Middle East and Africa were largely viewed through the prism of their geopolitical importance to Western powers. Engagement with these regions was primarily anchored in security partnerships to contain regional conflicts or preserve the Western-led security architecture, ensuring stable energy supplies and the maintenance of strategic alliances. These dynamics have, however, shifted significantly over the past two decades following the rise of China and Asia’s broader economic resurgence. As a result, many Middle Eastern and African states have recalibrated their priorities, placing economic engagement and development increasingly above traditional geopolitical and security concerns.
Trade and economic integration between Africa and the Middle East has accelerated in recent years, driven by geographic proximity, shared economic interests, and mutual goals of diversification and growth. Iranian exports to Africa in 2025 rose by 85% compared to 2024. Several partnerships were also created between Iran and African states in technology, culture,and education. Scholarship programs were established to enable African students to pursue advanced education in science and technology at Iranian universities. Within the region, the United Arab Emirates also emerged as one of Africa’s most important economic partners, recording approximately 100 billion US dollars in trade with Africa. As political, cultural, and economic ties between Africa and the Middle East deepen, instability in the region can rapidly reverberate across multiple sectors of African economies.
Middle East conflict and (in)security in the Horn of Africa
The US-Israel war with Iran has also raised important security considerations in Africa. The Horn of Africa and Red Sea regions, which link Africa and the Middle East, are militarily interconnected; thus, a crisis in one region could affect the other. Moreover, arms flows can easily spill across shores, further destabilizing many states in the already fragile region. The Horn of Africa hosts several strategic military bases within the range of the Iranian missiles, with over 4,000 US military personnel at Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti. Since the conflict escalated, Iran has systematically targeted its Arab neighbours as part of its retaliatory strategy. The Yemeni Houthis and Iran could target Emirati, Israeli, or US positions in the Horn of Africa and across the continent as part of the ongoing Iranian retaliatory campaign. Additionally, conflict in Sudan, tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea, and persistent instability in Somalia highlight the delicate security landscape across the Horn. Diplomatically, as “middle powers” expand their influence in the crisis, African governments will need to navigate intensifying global rivalries and the growing military interconnections between the Middle East and the Horn of Africa. This raises difficult security dilemmas for many states.
Economic Impacts of the US-Israel War with Iran on Africa
Africa is bracing for the ripple effects of the conflict. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil channel bordering Iran that connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, has already led to global energy price hikes. Oil from some of the biggest global producers lies stranded in storage tanks and ships, unable to thread through the Straight of Hormuz, driving up prices of essential goods. The Suez Canal, a critical shortcut from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean Sea, lost an estimated $10 billion in revenue due to a reduction in shipping traffic after Israel’s 2023 invasion of Gaza. Increased insecurity around key shipping corridors is forcing many vessels to avoid the Suez Canal and reroute around the Cape of Good Hope. This diversion significantly increases shipping times and costs, which ultimately drives up prices for goods and commodities imported into African markets. For example, prices at gas stations in Nigeria increased by around 11% in just one week of the crisis. Moreover, the Middle East crisis could spark another round of devaluations in Africa. Rising energy costs could limit the ability of governments to defend their currencies. This leaves many African economies in a more vulnerable and precarious position.
Lastly, one of the most overlooked dimensions of the crisis is its social and economic impact on African migrant workers in the Gulf, particularly women. For decades, the oil-rich Gulf region has attracted workers from different parts of the world with competitive salaries and employment opportunities. Hundreds of thousands of Africans are employed across Gulf states, and the remittances they send home play a vital role in supporting families and national economies across the continent. For example, more than 400,000 Kenyans are employed in the Gulf states. As tensions rise, many of these migrant workers face growing uncertainty, with some stranded and others attempting to return home. As the conflict deepens, migrant workers in the region, including Africans, could face potential employment disruptions and reduced remittance flows. This situation could generate economic and social pressures that are felt far beyond the Middle East.
Conclusion
In this volatile context, African states must bolster internal security capacities and strengthen regional cooperation to address emerging internal and external threats. A unified and strategic diplomatic approach, rather than fragmented national responses, is needed to navigate intensifying rivalries. Moreso, collaborative mechanisms are also needed to protect African migrant workers in the Gulf and broader Middle East, ensuring safe repatriation for stranded migrants and support for those facing unemployment. In addition, economic resilience can be further enhanced through deeper regional market integration and coordinated development strategies within the continent.
Author
Chris Begealawuh
